Fitch Ratings has projected that Ghana’s public debt will fall to 60% of GDP in both 2025 and 2026, citing strong nominal GDP growth, fiscal consolidation, ongoing debt restructuring, and a faster-than-expected appreciation of the cedi in recent months.
This marks a significant decline from the 72% recorded in 2024 and the peak of 93% in 2022, when Ghana signalled its intent to default.
Despite this progress, the UK-based agency pointed out that the projected 60% figure remains higher than its 2026 ‘B’ median forecast of 51%.
The development follows Fitch’s recent upgrade of Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘Restricted Default’ (RD), along with a change in the rating outlook to Stable.
Fitch noted, “We expect the interest/revenue ratio to remain broadly stable, at 26% in 2025 and 2026, from 25% in 2024 and a peak of 48% in 2021. This will be driven by a declining stock of debt, offset by resumption of interest payments on external commercial debt and a step-up in coupon payments on the DDEP, with the weighted average coupon on the DDEP [Domestic Debt Exchange Programme] bonds increasing to 9.1% in 2025 from 5.4% in 2024.”
The firm highlighted that Ghana’s interest/revenue ratio remains above the ‘B’ and ‘C’/‘D’ medians of 13% and 16% respectively, adding that this remains a significant constraint on the country’s rating profile.
Fitch also forecast a narrowing of the current account surplus from a record 4.3% of GDP in 2024 to 1.1% in 2026. This outlook is based on expectations of rising imports fuelled by economic growth and a possible drop in export prices.
The trend marks a notable shift from earlier periods of large deficits and stands in favourable contrast to the projected ‘B’ median deficit of 3% in 2026.
According to the report, this improvement will support Ghana’s external reserves, which are expected to grow to cover 3.9 months of current external payments by 2026, up from 2.6 months in 2024 and 1.6 months in 2022. This compares with the ‘B’ median reserve coverage of 4.9 months in 2024.
The agency added that fluctuations in gold prices had played a major role in the current account surplus for 2024 and will continue to shape Ghana’s external balance going forward.
