Adnan Adams Mohammed
The World Bank Group has revised its projection on Ghana’s 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate downwards by 0.4 % to 3.9% from its earlier projection of 4.3%.
The Bretton Woods institution explained that; persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing external vulnerabilities were the key reasons for the downgrade. Highlighting climate-related risks (particularly, unpredictable weather patterns that have disrupted cocoa production in Ghana), it also warned that, climate-induced events such as floods and droughts continue to erode national budget revenues across Africa by up to 9%, causing economic setbacks of between 2% and 5% in terms of growth.
The Group’s revised rate, as contained in the April 2025 edition of the Africa’s Pulse report, is significantly different from other major projections on Ghana’s economic growth in 2025. The Standard Bank has projected the highest growth rate forecast of 5.4% for Ghana in 2025 with the African Development Bank Group also forecasting 4.3% growth for Ghana in 2025 while DataBank Research predicts the lowest growth rate forecast, of 3.6% for Ghana in 2025. However, Ghana’s 2025 budget targets a real GDP growth rate of at least 4.0% and a non-oil GDP growth rate of at least 4.8%.
Meanwhile, over the medium-term, the World Bank remains cautiously optimistic about Ghana’s prospects, projecting a rebound to 4.6% growth in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027 rating Ghana among a few African economies showing early signs of recovery from 2025.
“Business activity in Mozambique and Ghana rebounded in February 2025,” the Group noted in its new report published last week. “The modest uptick in Ghana was driven by increased demand and a resurgence in new business engagements.”
High-frequency indicators, particularly the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), suggest an uptick in business activity. Ghana’s PMI rose from 47.9 in January to 50.6 in March, indicating improved demand, easing supply bottlenecks, and renewed investor confidence following the December 2024 presidential elections.
Across the region, Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth is expected to rise slightly from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, with further acceleration to 4.3% by 2026–2027.
However, the continent’s overall trajectory remains constrained by expected weak performances in its three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola. Excluding these, the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2025, rising to 5.7% by 2027.
Still, the World Bank has warned that elevated downside risks—including global policy uncertainties, climate shocks, and fiscal constraints—pose ongoing threats to a sustained and inclusive recovery across the continent.
In related news, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sharply cut its global growth forecast 2.8% in 2025, a significant drop from the 3.3% forecast made in January, as contained in the newly published IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which cites escalating trade tensions with the United States announcing a wave of new tariffs and trading partners responding with their own countermeasures, creating ripple effects across global supply chains and dampening investor sentiment.
It also cites mounting policy uncertainty as the other main culprit behind the lower growth forecast.
“Since the release of the January 2025 WEO Update, a series of new tariff measures by the United States and countermeasures by its trading partners have been announced and implemented, ending up in near-universal US tariffs on April 2 and bringing effective tariff rates to levels not seen in a century.
“This on its own is a major negative shock to growth. The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook and, at the same time, makes it more difficult than usual to make assumptions that would constitute a basis for an internally consistent and timely set of projections.
“Given the complexity and fluidity of the current moment, this report presents a ‘reference forecast’ based on information available as of April 4, 2025 (including the April 2 tariffs and initial responses), in lieu of the usual baseline. This is complemented with a range of global growth forecasts, primarily under different trade policy assumptions.
“The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity. Under the reference forecast that incorporates information as of April 4, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026—down from 3.3 percent for both years in the January 2025 WEO Update, corresponding to a cumulative downgrade of 0.8 percentage point, and much below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent,” part of the report read.
In advanced economies, growth is now expected to slow to 1.4% in 2025, with the U.S. economy seeing a notable downgrade—now projected at 1.8%, nearly a full percentage point below previous estimates.
In emerging markets and developing economies, growth is expected to slow down to 3.7% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026, with significant downgrades for countries affected most by recent trade measures, such as China. Global headline inflation is expected to decline at a pace that is slightly slower than what was expected in January, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with notable upward revisions for advanced economies and slight downward revisions for emerging market and developing economies in 2025.
The IMF has flagged intensifying downside risks, warning that a deeper trade war, rising financial instability, and fragile policy buffers, could worsen the economic landscape. Vulnerable emerging markets could face capital flight, currency pressures, and increasing debt burdens.
The Fund however noted that a reversal or de-escalation of current trade policies could offer a reprieve and potentially revive global growth.
“Intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook. Ratcheting up a trade war, along with even more elevated trade policy uncertainty, could further reduce near- and long-term growth, while eroded policy buffers weaken resilience to future shocks. Divergent and rapidly shifting policy stances or deteriorating sentiment could trigger additional repricing of assets beyond what took place after the announcement of sweeping US tariffs on April 2 and sharp adjustments in foreign exchange rates and capital flows, especially for economies already facing debt distress.
“Broader financial instability may ensue, including damage to the international monetary system. Demographic shifts and a shrinking foreign labor force may curb potential growth and threaten fiscal sustainability. The lingering effects of the recent cost-of-living crisis, coupled with depleted policy space and dim medium-term growth prospects, could reignite social unrest. The resilience shown by many large emerging market economies may be tested as servicing high debt levels becomes more challenging in unfavorable global financial conditions.
“More limited international development assistance may increase the pressure on low-income countries, pushing them deeper into debt or necessitating significant fiscal adjustments, with immediate consequences for growth and living standards. On the upside, a de-escalation from current tariff rates and new agreements providing clarity and stability in trade policies could lift global growth,” it added.
The report calls for coordinated policy action, urging nations to work together to restore predictability in trade, strengthen debt sustainability, and address long-term structural challenges like demographic shifts and migration.
