Fitch Ratings has projected that Ghana’s average inflation will decline to 15% in 2025 and further to 10% in 2026, marking a significant drop from the 2024 figure of 23%.
The UK-based ratings agency attributed this anticipated easing to a strong appreciation of the cedi since April 2025, persistent tight monetary policy, and ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts.
While Fitch acknowledged uncertainty about the extent to which the stronger currency will influence domestic prices, it believes it will “rapidly contribute to a moderation in domestic inflation,” especially when supported by falling oil and global food prices.
In its assessment, the firm also indicated that the Bank of Ghana is expected to initiate interest rate cuts starting July 2025.
Latest inflation data show that the year-on-year rate dropped to 18.4% in May 2025 the lowest recorded since February 2022. This marks the fifth consecutive month of declining inflation, down from 21.2% in April 2025.
Analysts note that the trend is being driven largely by reduced transport costs due to falling fuel prices, and a slowdown in the rate of increase for non-food goods and services.
On the broader economic front, Fitch reported that Ghana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remained strong during its debt restructuring period, registering 3.1% in 2023 and an impressive 5.7% in 2024.
“We anticipate growth will remain solid, at 4% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, on a rebound in agricultural output after a steep decline in cocoa production in recent years, and a continued expansion of the industrial and services sectors,” the agency added.
The projections provide cautious optimism for Ghana’s economy, which continues to navigate complex fiscal and monetary challenges
