The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimates that the cedi will end 2024 at GH¢16.07 to one US dollar.
It also projects a marginal depreciation of the local currency in 2025 to GH¢17.23 to one American greenback.
This was capture in Deloitte’s Report titled “Sneak Preview of 2025”.
According to EIU, a decrease in cocoa exports and a higher import bill will spur some weakness in the cedi towards the end of 2024.
However, in 2025, the improved investor confidence arising from the relatively peaceful election, the conclusion of the government’s debt restructuring negotiations, periodic International Monetary Fund (IMF) disbursements and higher gold export receipts will boost the international reserves level of the country and support the cedi’s value.
Presently, the cedi is trading at GH¢16.10 to one dollar on the retail market.
Implications and Risks
Deloitte said a more stable exchange rate is positive for restoring investor confidence in an economy.
The risk to a stable cedi, it explained, arises predominantly from a rise in imports from the services sub sector such as hydrocarbons and mining projects.
“Also, a more than anticipated decline in cocoa exports could lead to a narrower trade surplus and a decline in the current account balance of the country. Ghana’s current account balance is forecast to decline to US$700 million in 2025 from an estimate of US$1.6 billion in 2024”, it added.
